ABSTRACT
Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has affected over 112 million people and killed more than 2.5 million worldwide. When the pandemic was declared, Spain and Italy accounted for 29% of the total COVID-19 related deaths in Europe, while most infected patients did not present severe illness. We hypothesised that shared genomic characteristics, distinct from the rest of Europe, could be a contributor factor to a poor prognosis in these two populations. To identify pathways related to COVID-19 severity, we shortlisted 437 candidate genes associated with host viral intake and immune evasion from SARS-like viruses. From these, 21 were associated specifically with clinically aggressive COVID-19. To determine the potential mechanism of viral infections, we performed signalling pathway analysis with either the full list (n = 437) or the subset group (n = 21) of genes. Four pathways were significantly associated with the full gene list (Caveolar-mediated Endocytosis and the MSP-RON Signalling) or with the aggressive gene list (Hepatic Fibrosis/Hepatic Stellate Cell (HSC) Activation and the Communication between Innate and Adaptive Immune Cells). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from the ±1 Mb window of all genes related to these four pathways were retrieved from the dbSNP database. We then performed Principal Component analysis for these SNPs in individuals from the 1000 Genomes of European ancestry. Only the Hepatic Fibrosis/HSC Activation pathway showed population-specific segregation. The Spanish and Italian populations clustered together and away from the rest of the European ancestries, with the first segregating further from the rest. Additional in silico analysis identified potential genetic markers and clinically actionable therapeutic targets in this pathway, that may explain the severe disease.